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AbstractThe optimal reaction to a potential productivity shock as a consequence
of climate tipping is to substantially tax carbon in order to curb the risk of tipping, ...
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However, the benefits of this form of bidding are subject to certain conditions, such as a good number of available bidders and no-post-contract adaptations. Cumulative emissions drive peak global warming and determine the safe carbon budget compatible with staying below 2 c. Second, we propose a novel strategy for identifying it, by considering an empirical design that confines the common-pool channel to specific locations.
Exploiting the quasi-experimental expansion of african large-scale gold mining, i find that local infant mortality rates decrease by more than 50 alongside rapid economic growth. Our study focuses on power sector investments in angola, where granular data on the type, size, and source of these investments allows us to generate precise estimates for the responsiveness of lights. We apply this test in the market for solar energy.
For countries with below-threshold institutional quality, the growth disappointment effect is larger, measured as 1. The fund allows government to smooth expenditure programs over the medium-term. We allow for different aversions to risk and intertemporal fluctuations, convex damages, uncertainties in economic growth, atmospheric carbon, climate sensitivity and damages, correclated risks, and distributions that are skewed in the longer run to capture climate feedbacks.
Reelection-seeking politicians, while more accountable toward their electorate, are also more myopic. Finally, the mere risk of a cap on globalwarming being enforced at some unknown, future date makes fossil fuel extraction more voracious and accelerates global warming. Evidence for a presource curse? Oil discoveries, elevated expectations, and growth disappointments oil and gas extraction may lead to the dutch disease, i.
These findings have potentially wide-ranging implications for the interpretation of changes in lights as a proxy for economic activity. This race to burn the last ton of carbon is more intensive for the feedback than open-loop nash equilibrium, so that the green paradox effect of a renewable energy subsidy is stronger. Saving albertas resource revenues role of intergenerational and liquidity funds.
Consistent with the predictions of a two-region model, our empirical estimates based on a large panel of countries show that increased market orientation causes a significant increase in discoveries. The latter effect gives rise to a budget deficit bias, with the ensuing debt buildup that is exacerbated by resource windfalls. If pollution taxes are not optimized, pareto-improving green tax reforms exist that move the pollution tax closer to the pigouvian tax if preferences are gorman polar. A cap on global warming implies a tighter carbon budget which can be enforced with a credible second-best renewable energy subsidy designed to lock up fossil fuel and curb cumulative emissions. Macro policy responses to natural resource windfalls and the crash in commodity prices this paper examines the effect of large oil and gas discoveries on foreign direct investment in developing economies using a new project-level dataset.
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This latter feature enables attributing the vertical fiscal reactions of the remaining states to the complementarity channel. See All Buying Options.
Moreover, the productivity catastrophe is compared with recoverable catastrophes and with a shick to the climate sensitivity, Our study focuses on power sector investments in angola, where granular data on the type, size.
We construct a model of endogenous public debt driven by political myopia. Stranded assets, the social cost of carbon, and directed technical change macroeconomic dynamics of optimal climate policy we estimate the impact of local mining activity on the business constraints experienced by 22,150 firms across eight resource-rich countries.
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The smaller role for the financial sector in intermediating resource booms is accompanied by a stronger role of governments in channeling resources into the economy, mostly through higher government consumption. Follow the money does the financial sector intermediate natural resource windfalls? Temperature responses and optimal climate policies depend crucially on the choice of a particular climate model. There is also a discussion of the optimal carbon budget and the amount of unburnable carbon and stranded fossil fuel reserves and a back-on-the-envelope expression are given for calculating these. The study finds casual evidence of significant negative effect on short-run growth and growth relative to counter-factual forecast growth in countries with weak instututions creating growth disappointments prior to private and public resource windfalls. We use a welfare-based intertemporal stochastic optimization model and historical data to estimate the size of the optimal intergenerational and liquidity funds and the corresponding resource dividend available to the government of the canadian province alberta.
We document a large increase in non-resource fdi in the 2 years following a giant discovery, an event which is unpredictable due to the uncertain nature of exploration. Our recommendations are in stark contrast with historical and current government policy. Can institutionalized transfers of resource rents be a source of civil conflict? Are cohesive institutions better in managing distributive conflicts? We study these questions exploiting exogenous variation in revenue disbursements to local governments together with new data on local democratic institutions in nigeria. The estimated effect is inversely related to the quality of political institutions, and driven by countries with lower institutional quality at the time of the discovery, consistent with the similar long-run results documented in the resource curse literature. Such a subsidy brings forward the end of the fossil fuel era, but accelerates fossil fuel extraction and global warming in the short run.
We identify an adverse consequence of natural resource windfalls, which is particularly detrimental in advanced democracies. We find that the fdi inflows increase by 73 and that this wave is drive by a 37 increase in the number of fdi projects as well as a 22 increase in source countries and a 17 increase in target sectors. This delivers an endogenous risk premium which is inversely related to the price of oil. The model is able to explain a large proportion of the business cycle fluctuations in interest-rate spreads in resource dependent developing economies. Policy prescriptions for managing natural resource windfalls are based on the permanent income hypothesis none of the windfall is invested at home and saving in an intergenerational swf is dictated by smoothing consumption across different generations. Buyers of solar systems capture nearly the full subsidy, while there is more-than-complete pass-through to lessees. Fiscal options for absorbing a windfall of natural resource revenues - a cge model of oil discovery in uganda measurements using satellite data on nighttime lights are becoming increasingly widespread as a proxy method for evaluating economic activities, such as gdp or gdp growth. We find that nearby oil spills doublethe neonatal mortality rate. Oil discoveries can constitute a major positive and exogenous shock to economic activity, but the hypothesis would suggest they might also be detrimental to growth over the long run. This price is the sum of a gradual damaged component familiar from the unconstrained optimal carbon price highlighted in economic studies and a hotelling component for the additional price needed to ensure the safe carbon budget is never violated familiar from iam studies.Top Downloaded Papers of 2016. Research Evaluation is an interdisciplinary
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The max-min or min-max regret climate policies rely on a non-sceptic view of global warming and lead to a substantial and moderate amount of caution, respectively. Geophysical supplements to the monthly notices of the royal astronomical society the journal of medicine and philosophy a forum for bioethics and philosophy of medicine teaching mathematics and its applications an international journal of the ima oxford university press is a department of the university of oxford. For a given carbon budget, an immediate carbon tax is the first-best response but delaying the carbon tax or a renewable energy subsidy to meet the same temperature target are preferred by shareholders because they introduce green paradox effects and protect the profitability of existing capital Buy now Research paper buy Oxford
The alternative of adjusting dmaages iupwards to factor in the peak warming constraint leads initially to a higher carbon price which rises less rapidly. Oil discoveries can constitute a major positive and exogenous shock to economic activity, but the hypothesis would suggest they might also be detrimental to growth over the long run. This paper utilizes a new methodology for estimating growth underperformance to examine the extent to which discoveries depress the growth of a country following a discovery and prior to production starting. Considering second-best settings, we show that, although carbon taxes achieve stringent targets more efficiently, in fact renewable subsidies deliver higher welfare when policy is more mild Research paper buy Oxford Buy now
The stated effects are found for secondary diamonds, which are lootable and related to opportunity costs of fighting, but not for primary diamonds, which are neither. We find that the positive effect of resource windfalls on debt increases as the restrictions on reelection get laxer. Saving albertas resource revenues role of intergenerational and liquidity funds. Furthermore, the local effects disappear after mining activities come to an end which is consistent with the resource curse view. It suggests that such a price increase can have opposite effects at different geographical levels of analysis a decrease in conflict intensity at the country level due to rising opportunity costs of rebellion, but an increase in conflict intensity in resource-rich sub-national regions, as returns to looting rise Buy Research paper buy Oxford at a discount
These effects are fairly uniforma across locations and sociao-economic backgrounds. Second, we show that distributive conflict is highly organized involving political militias and concentrated in the extent to which local governments are non-cohesive. For countries with below-threshold institutional quality, the growth disappointment effect is larger, measured as 1. We test the models predictions using a panel of us states over the period 1963-2007. A cap on global warming implies a tighter carbon budget which can be enforced with a credible second-best renewable energy subsidy designed to lock up fossil fuel and curb cumulative emissions.
Our identification strategy rests on narrative-based monetary policy shocks that are exogenous to individual states, and geographically-based cross-state differences in natural endowments interacted with the interantional price of oil Buy Online Research paper buy Oxford
Including them in the model significantly improves the ability of the model to explain the key macroeconomic co-movements in a resource rich, developing economy context. We derive a non-certainty-equivalent rule for the carbon price, which incorporates precautionary, risk-insurance and risk-exposure, and climate beta effects to dela with future economic and climate risks. We also provide some evidence for negative health effects of nearby oil spills on surviving children. We model breakthroughs as an irreversible tipping point in a multi-country world, with different degrees of international cooperation. Oil discoveries can constitute a major positive and exogenous shock to economic activity, but the hypothesis would suggest they might also be detrimental to growth over the long run Buy Research paper buy Oxford Online at a discount
It combines the performance ratings of the world bank financed projects with the information on bidding for world bank procurement contracts and uses natural resources as exogenous variations to show that in resource-rich countries, where the conditions are less likely to be satisfied, awarding the contract to the bidder with the lowest cost may not be the best procurement method in terms of contract performance. Can institutionalized transfers of resource rents be a source of civil conflict? Are cohesive institutions better in managing distributive conflicts? We study these questions exploiting exogenous variation in revenue disbursements to local governments together with new data on local democratic institutions in nigeria Research paper buy Oxford For Sale
Geophysical supplements to the monthly notices of the royal astronomical society the journal of medicine and philosophy a forum for bioethics and philosophy of medicine teaching mathematics and its applications an international journal of the ima oxford university press is a department of the university of oxford. The politics stems from international free-rider problems in absence of a global climate deal. If pollution taxes are not optimized, pareto-improving green tax reforms exist that move the pollution tax closer to the pigouvian tax if preferences are gorman polar. We find that the presence of active mines deteriorates the business environment in the immediate vicinity (. Including them in the model significantly improves the ability of the model to explain the key macroeconomic co-movements in a resource rich, developing economy context For Sale Research paper buy Oxford
To first-order of approximation, this dividend should be a constant fraction of total above- and below-ground wealth, complemented by additional precautionary savings at initial times to build up a small liquidity fund to cope with oil price volatility. An increasing carbon tax will reduce investments in assets that pollute, and so reduce emissions in the short term our irreversibility effect. We find that the stable relationship between lights and gdp does not hold in this supply-constrained context, and instead increases in lights strongly co-vary, and at different rates, to different forms of investment. The pigouvian pollution tax is higher if pollution damages disproportionally hurt the poor due to equity weighting of pollution damages Sale Research paper buy Oxford
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